![]() ![]() All these reasons emphasize the need for improved understanding and prediction of hurricanes, more so the prediction of time and location of landfall and the evolution of hurricanes preceding the landfall.įor hurricane prediction, a variety of predictions models are available as statistical, dynamical, statistical-dynamical, trajectory and ensemble models. ![]() Most of the destruction from the hurricanes occurs during 2–3 days preceding the landfall and few hours after the landfall. ![]() The estimated cost of losses due to catastrophic hurricanes is about $1.7 billion/ year on average from 1949 to 1988 and $4.2 billion/year from 1989 to 1999, which is attributable to population growth and increasing development in coastal regions. Damage due to high wind results in felling trees, building damage, disruption of transport and communication systems continuous torrential rains for 1–3 days result in flash floods and storm surge lead to coastal inundation all affecting towards loss of life, property and disruption of public life. In association with landfall, coastal regions are the most vulnerable due to strong winds (often exceeding about 100 mph) torrential rains (often exceeding 3 cm/hour and 20 cm/day) and storm surge (often exceeding about 8 ft). The south-east coasts of US are the most vulnerable to the hurricanes of Atlantic Ocean. Data from National Hurricane Center (NHC) show that from 1949 to 1999, 302 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin, of which 78 made landfall in the United States and 31 of these hurricanes were intense. Each year approximately 80–90 tropical cyclones reaching tropical storm intensity occur around the globe, of which about 40–50 attain hurricane intensity of 33 m/s. Hurricanes, all over the world, are known to be the most common and most devastating of all the natural disasters. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis) data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF) designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model.
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